The Certified Pre-Owned (CPO) watch market in 2026: from correction to opportunity

Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Offshore

The certified pre-owned (CPO) luxury watch market enters 2026 at a pivotal moment. After the speculative frenzy of 2021-2022 and the subsequent correction of 2023-2025, the secondary market is stabilizing into what industry experts describe as a rational, opportunity-rich environment for informed collectors and first-time buyers alike.

Drawing on recent analysis from Hodinkee, industry data from the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry (FH), auction house results from Phillips, Sotheby's, and Christie's, plus market intelligence from leading dealers, this comprehensive outlook examines what 2026 holds for the pre-owned luxury watch sector.

The state of the market: stabilization after turbulence

The CHF20-25 billion global pre-owned watch market has undergone a dramatic transformation since its pandemic-era peak. According to Oliver Müller of LuxeConsult, the secondary market generates approximately CHF20 billion in annual sales and could eventually overtake the primary market, which is estimated at CHF40 billion.

Key market indicators for 2026

The WatchCharts Market Index, tracking the 60 most actively traded luxury watches, reveals the beginning of a healthy and rational recovery after finding a definitive floor in late 2024 and early 2025, with the market embarking on a steady, gradual ascent throughout 2025.

This stabilization represents a fundamental shift from speculation to genuine collecting, creating distinct opportunities for buyers who understand market dynamics.

The game-changing factor: brand certified pre-owned programs

Perhaps no development carries more significance for 2026 than the explosive growth of manufacturer-controlled CPO programs, fundamentally reshaping how pre-owned luxury watches are bought and sold.

Rolex Certified Pre-Owned: market dominance

Rolex's CPO program already controls 10% of the global market for secondhand sales of its watches, a remarkable achievement for a program that only launched in late 2022. The program's rapid expansion validates the Crown's strategic decision to acknowledge and influence the secondary market.

Rolex expanded its Certified Pre-Owned program parameters to make watches that are two years old eligible, down from a minimum of three years previously. This adjustment increases available inventory and provides collectors with more recent references, all backed by Rolex's two-year warranty and authenticity guarantee.

The impact extends beyond Rolex itself. As The 1916 Company in the United States—a business that merged three multi-store Rolex authorized dealers with WatchBox—realized there was no future selling Submariners, Daytonas and GMTs that had not been through the RCPO program, illustrating how CPO sets new quality standards across the entire secondary market.

The CPO expansion: major brands follow Rolex's lead

In 2026, Audemars Piguet is expected to roll out its own certified pre-owned offering, led by Marc Montagne, a former digital executive at Vacheron Constantin and Jaeger-LeCoultre. This launch will be one of the most closely watched developments in the secondary market, showing how AP approaches this growing segment.

Cartier and Audemars Piguet are developing their own official CPO initiatives, Richard Mille already has one, and several Richemont brands are on the path. Patek Philippe is expected to move next, having previously said it was not something they wanted to get into.

The logic is compelling: CPO programs allow brands to control quality standards throughout their watches' lifetimes, capture secondary market value, manage inventory, and attract new price-sensitive luxury buyers—all while reinforcing brand prestige through authenticated, warrantied timepieces.

Economic tailwinds: the macro picture for 2026

Several macroeconomic factors create a more favorable environment for the pre-owned market in 2026 compared to the challenging conditions of 2024-2025.

Interest rate relief

After holding benchmark interest rates at a restrictive 4.5% for the majority of 2025, the Federal Reserve initiated a series of cuts in the final quarter, bringing the rate down to 3.75% by December, providing the most significant tailwind for the broader consumer market heading into 2026.

Lower borrowing costs particularly benefit the sub-$20,000 (CHF16'000)segment of the pre-owned market, where monetary loosening will directly stimulate demand, not as a return to speculative fervor, but as a healthy revival driven by genuine enthusiasts who were previously sidelined by economic pressures.

The tariff resolution

One of 2025's biggest uncertainties has been resolved. The U.S. reduced tariffs on imported watches from 39% to 15%, a single shift that reinvigorated retailers and restored confidence among American buyers, making luxury watches instantly more accessible in one of the world's most important markets.

However, Rolex prices will rise by an average of 7% in 2026, with gold prices rising around 9% and steel watches up closer to 5%, reflecting record gold prices, a weaker dollar, general inflation, and the higher 15% tariff on Swiss watch imports to the United States.

This retail price inflation creates relative value in the pre-owned market, where many references trade below or near retail without the waiting lists and allocation politics of authorized dealers.

Primary market challenges create secondary market opportunities

The primary watch market's struggles paradoxically strengthen the pre-owned sector's position.

The value proposition shift

With retail prices rising and availability remaining constrained for desirable models, the pre-owned market offers immediate access to a broader range of references at more competitive prices.

In 2026, condition, "full set" completeness, and service history will matter more as buyers get pickier, rewarding iconic references with deep demand more than short-term hype pieces.

Auction market resilience: quality trumps quantity

Despite economic headwinds, the auction segment demonstrated surprising strength in 2025, providing important signals for 2026.

Record results and market confidence

It was a surprisingly strong year for most of the big auction houses, with many demonstrating impressive resilience amid the challenges of tariffs and economic uncertainty.

Phillips achieved its highest auction totals in 2025, reaching CHF232 million in sales and marking five straight years above CHF160 million, with standout results for vintage heavyweights and artisanal independents.

Results from the November Geneva auctions achieved 99% of high estimates in aggregate, depicting a market that's strong and stable where expectations finally align with reality—compared to 86% of high estimates the previous November.

What's performing at auction

F.P. Journe dominated headlines when Audemars Piguet confirmed it was the buyer of the "Grosse Pièce" sold at Sotheby's for CHF6.1 million in December, the highest price achieved for an AP watch at a non-charity auction. Independent watchmakers continue gaining collector attention and market share.

Vintage Patek Philippe complications remain strong, while certain references from Rolex, Audemars Piguet, and Vacheron Constantin show sustained demand at auction, indicating robust collector appetite for quality pieces with provenance.

Market segmentation: winners and losers in 2026

Not all segments will perform equally. Market bifurcation—the divide between ultra-luxury and accessible segments—defines the 2026 landscape.

The ultra-exclusive segment (Over CHF40,000)

The macro-climate of 2026 will distinctly favor two types of buyers and two segments of the pre-owned watch market: the ultra-exclusive and the intelligently priced.

High-net-worth individuals remain insulated from economic pressures, continuing to pursue rare references, independent watchmakers, and investment-grade pieces. This segment sees:

• Vintage Patek Philippe complications

• Independent brands (F.P. Journe, Philippe Dufour, Voutilainen)

• Limited editions from major manufactures

• Rare vintage Rolex references with provenance

The sweet spot: CHF10,000-CHF30,000

This range represents the healthiest segment for 2026, offering:

• Pre-owned Rolex sports models (Submariner, GMT-Master II, Daytona)

• Modern Patek Philippe Aquanaut and Nautilus (select references)

• Audemars Piguet Royal Oak (steel models)

• Omega Speedmaster and Seamaster limited editions

• Cartier Santos, Tank, and integrated bracelet models

• Tudor Black Bay and Ranger models

Pre-owned often offers the best value in 2026, providing more choice including references, dials, bracelets, and configurations, while avoiding inflated "fresh hype" pricing.

The entry-level challenge (under CHF10,000)

This segment faces the greatest headwinds: smartwatch competition, economic sensitivity among aspirational buyers, and abundant supply. However, opportunities exist for:

• Vintage watches from respected brands

• Discontinued references with collector appeal

• Steel sports watches from Tudor, Omega, and Breitling

• Certified pre-owned pieces with full warranties

Investment perspective: gold, steel, and material considerations

Material composition significantly impacts value trajectory in 2026.

Gold watches and precious metal floor

Many banks and analysts expect gold to climb toward approximately €3,400–€3,900/oz by late 2026, creating a floor value since the metal itself becomes more expensive.

While gold watches don't move one-for-one with bullion prices (brand and design matter far more), rising gold prices provide underlying support for precious metal timepieces.

Steel sports models: sustained demand

Popular steel sport models from Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet continue dominating collector interest. Supply is limited, demand is global, and these watches tend to hold value well.

However, steel products saw a marked increase in volume (+5.3%) despite a slight decline in value (-0.8%) in Swiss exports, suggesting brands are producing more steel pieces, potentially affecting secondary market dynamics for certain references.

What to buy in 2026: strategic recommendations

Based on market analysis and expert predictions, certain categories present the best opportunities for collectors and investors in 2026.

Proven value holds

Rolex Submariner (References 126610, 124060) One of the cleanest, most liquid sports watches on the planet—simple, iconic, and rarely "goes out of style". Pre-owned examples with full sets offer immediate availability without retail premiums.

Rolex GMT-Master II (References 126710BLRO, 126710BLNR) GMTs stay hot because they're functional, recognizable, and highly reference-specific. Two-tone bezels ("Pepsi" and "Batman") command particular attention.

Omega Speedmaster Professional A legendary chronograph with history, wearability, and a massive collector base—often a strong value entry point. With the Milano Cortina 2026 Winter Olympics, expect Omega special editions.

Cartier Santos and Integrated Bracelet Models A design icon that feels dressy and sporty at the same time. In a market shifting toward wearable luxury, Cartier keeps winning.

Anniversary opportunities

2026 marks significant anniversaries: the Nautilus turns 50, and Patek Philippe will have its Grand Exhibition in Milan in October. Tudor and the Rolex Oyster both turn 100.

Anniversary years typically drive demand for specific models, creating both opportunities (buy before announcements) and caution (avoid overpaying for hype).

Independent watchmakers: selective approach

In 2026, independent brands will continue to penetrate the market and the zeitgeist of collecting in a meaningful way, as younger independents become more established in their watchmaking abilities and infrastructure.

However, selectivity matters. Focus on established names (F.P. Journe, Philippe Dufour, Voutilainen) rather than unproven newcomers, as the rapid rise of F.P. Journe may begin to cool after dramatic auction results of 2025, with greater price discrimination expected in favor of independents with proven history and reputation.

How to buy smart in 2026: practical guidance

The pre-owned market rewards knowledge and patience. Follow these principles to avoid overpaying and secure lasting value.

Verify everything

Condition, polishing, bracelet stretch, full set contents, service history, warranty status, and reference-specific desirability matter even more in 2026.

Request detailed photos and videos. Ask about service history. Confirm serial numbers. For significant purchases, consider independent authentication services.

Buy from reputable sellers

Whether through CPO programs, established dealers on platforms like Chrono24, or auction houses, source from sellers with transparent track records. Buy from a reputable seller, confirm authenticity, ask for clear photos and videos, and prioritize transparency.

Think long-term

If you ever need to sell, you want a watch that moves quickly and predictably. Pay for quality when it matters—strong condition plus full set plus clean provenance usually beats "cheap" in the long run.

Avoid watches that require explanation or have unusual characteristics unless you're a specialist collector who understands the niche market.

New vs. Pre-Owned in 2026: the value equation

The choice between new and pre-owned depends on your priorities, timeline, and specific model interest.

When new makes sense

• You want full manufacturer warranty and first-owner experience

• The watch is readily available without excessive wait times

• The retail premium is justified (limited editions, new releases)

• CPO examples aren't yet available for recent models

When pre-owned wins

• Immediate availability of sold-out or discontinued references

• Access to vintage references not in current production

• Significant savings on lightly-worn recent models

• Broader choice of dial variants, bezels, and configurations

Pre-owned often offers the best value in 2026, allowing you to pick the exact reference and condition you want while avoiding inflated "fresh hype" pricing.

The collector's outlook: trends shaping 2026

Beyond pricing and availability, several trends will influence collecting behavior in 2026.

"Private everything" culture

Private dinners, collector events, WhatsApp groups, and subscriptions are growing. It's becoming cool not to be on social media, as the wealthy give up assets for experiences.

This shift toward exclusive, experience-based collecting communities influences what becomes desirable. Provenance, story, and insider access matter increasingly.

Design-driven vintage

In 2026, design-driven watches will continue to dominate even more, with rare and unusual vintage shapes beginning to emerge. Watches with unique case finishes, special dials, and intricate bracelets will be very popular.

Vintage ladies' watches seem to be an untapped market with extremely decorative and intricate designs from the '70s and '80s remaining very accessible, presenting opportunities for collectors looking beyond traditional men's sports models.

A. Lange & Söhne renaissance

2026 will see the reemergence of A. Lange & Söhne watches in the used market, especially early and rare examples, as retail prices of new high-end watches from Patek, Vacheron, and Lange have been sky high, with the used Lange market being significantly soft.

This creates a compelling value proposition for collectors seeking German haute horlogerie at more accessible price points than Swiss equivalents.

The path forward: a rational, opportunity-rich market

The certified pre-owned watch market enters 2026 fundamentally healthier than at any point since the pandemic boom. Speculative excess has been wrung out, brand CPO programs establish quality standards, and prices reflect genuine collector demand rather than investment mania.

2026 won't be defined by shock releases, but more likely by a slow return to clarity. The watch industry is rediscovering its balance—between creativity and caution, heritage and innovation, aspiration and reality.

For collectors who value authenticity, craftsmanship, and lasting quality, 2026 presents perhaps the best buying opportunity in years. The market rewards knowledge, patience, and working with trusted sellers who prioritize transparency and authenticity.

Ready to explore certified pre-owned (CPO) luxury watches?

At Waltana, we specialize in authenticated pre-owned luxury timepieces from Switzerland's most prestigious manufacturers. Every watch in our inventory undergoes rigorous inspection and verification, with complete transparency about condition, provenance, and included accessories.

As a Chrono24 Trusted Seller based in Lausanne, we offer:

• Individual photography and detailed descriptions of each watch

• Transparent Swiss VAT-free export pricing for international buyers

• Worldwide insured shipping with full customs support

• Direct communication with owner

• Professional authentication and condition assessment

  
  

Explore Our Current Inventory: View Waltana Collection on Chrono24

Questions About the Market or a Specific Watch? Contact: contact@waltana.ch

Interested in Selling Your Watch? Learn about our consignment services and how we help collectors sell with confidence.

This market analysis is based on data and expert opinions from Hodinkee, Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry (FH), Phillips Watches, Sotheby's, Christie's, WatchCharts, LuxeConsult, and leading industry analysts as of January 2026. Market conditions can change rapidly; always conduct thorough research before making significant purchases.